Ontario Grain Farmer December 2023 / January 2024

A weather rally helped the prices gain ground again as concerns over dry conditions lifted the prices over the next few weeks, reaching $6.71 on June 21.

The market recouped the losses in June as forecasts for dry weather and improvement in the crude oil market drove the prices higher. Further support came from the USDA’s June 30 acreage report, with the department slashing its soybean estimate by four million acres to 83.5 million. The bullish factors helped the nearby future to close at approximately $14.68 on July 3. WHEAT The average Chicago cash price for wheat in 2022-23 was $7.43, lower than the 2021 - 22 average of $8.76 and approximately $1.46 higher than the previous five-year average of $5.97. The high price for the nearby future was $9.38 on October 10, 2022. Concerns over the war in Ukraine supported the market in October 2022, with Russia indicating it was ready to reject the renewal of a Black Sea corridor agreement in November. Dry weather in the U.S. Plains also contributed to the rise. The impact of the geo-political events was on full display in early November 2022 as Russia suddenly reversed its position on the corridor deal. On November 2, wheat prices plummeted by 57 cents, with the nearby future settling at $8.46. While the war in Ukraine continued to dominate the market talk through the rest of the year, issues including lower demand for higher-priced U.S. wheat, a large harvest in Russia and fears of a global recession weighed on the market. Meanwhile, larger-than expected wheat acres in the Prairie provinces contributed to the downward move in late June 2023. Statistics Canada reported that farmers planted 19.5 million acres of spring wheat, up eight per cent from 2022. Winter wheat, grown predominantly in eastern Canada, increased by 20 per cent to 1.4 million acres. As for Ontario prices by class, the average Soft Red Winter Wheat price in the Chatham area was $8.73, down $1.28 from the previous year’s average of $10.01 and $1.55 above the previous five-year average of $7.18. The average Soft White Winter Wheat price in the Chatham area was $10.84, up 62 cents from the previous year’s average of $10.22 and up $3.54 from the five-year average of $7.30. For Hard Red Winter Wheat (HRW), prices in the Chatham area averaged $9.92, down 65 cents from 2021 - 22 and $2.44 above the previous five-year average of $7.48. The prices for HRW do not include premiums.

The average closing prices in Minneapolis for Hard Red Spring Wheat averaged $8.94 in 2022 - 23, down $1.33 from the previous year’s average of $10.27 and $2.21 above the previous year’s average of $6.73.

The highest closing price in Minneapolis was $10.14 on October 10, 2022.

Ontario prices (not including premiums) tracked by Farm Market News averaged $10.67 in 2022 - 23, down by 89 cents from the previous year and up $3.08 from the previous five-year average of $7.59. Blair Andrews is the editor of Farm Market News, University of Guelph, Ridgetown Campus. He reports grain prices weekly in Grain Farmers of Ontario’s GrainTALK e-newsletter. l

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DECEMBER 2023 / JANUARY 2024

ONTARIO GRAIN FARMER